Estimated risk of ruin0.0%Across a simulated 500-trade run, roughly 0.0% of sequences lost 50% or more of the account. This is a simplified Monte Carlo estimate for education, not a forecast — real edges, correlations, and position sizing vary trade to trade.
What risk of ruin measures
Risk of ruin is the probability that a series of losing trades reduces your account below a level you define as unacceptable. It depends on three things working together: how often you win, how much you make when you win relative to what you lose, and how much of the account you put at risk on each trade.
This tool runs a simplified Monte Carlo simulation — thousands of hypothetical trade sequences — to estimate that probability. The key insight is that even a positive-edge strategy can carry a meaningful chance of ruin if the risk per trade is too high. Lower risk per trade almost always lowers the probability of a catastrophic loss.